In a post titled “Pawlenty calls for an end to ethanol subsidies“, Allahpundit starts off ok, but he cannot help himself when it comes to his preferred candidate. It is really embarrassing the way that he is so far in for one of the most boring candidates to have announced. Gary Johnson is probably the most boring candidate (and yes I have heard Johnson speak).
There are many points being brought up, including that Pawlenty is an evangelical which will go down well with the social conservatives in Iowa, and then he gets a little bit off track by bringing in a potential Bachman candidacy. (I really hope that she will not jump into the race because she will only embarrass herself big time).
Then Allahpundit totally embarrasses himself with an analysis that makes it obvious that he is continuing to be a shill for Pawlenty at the risk of showing obvious bias to other potential candidates:
I can picture three scenarios where T-Paw wins the nomination after losing Iowa. One: If Palin or some other grassroots candidate with a real chance to win the nomination jumps in and takes the state by storm, the GOP establishment will panic and might rally behind Pawlenty before New Hampshire on the assumption that only he has a chance of beating the Iowa winner in South Carolina. Two: If Pawlenty earns the endorsements of enough prominent establishment conservatives — Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour, Jeb Bush, etc — it could boost his profile to the point where he comes back to win indie-minded New Hampshire no matter what happens in Iowa. (Given Romney’s huge fundraising advantage, T-Paw might not be viable without those endorsements anyway.) Three: Huckabee could endorse him before Iowa, which might lock up enough social conservative votes to undo any damage from his ethanol heresy. All of those scenarios are dodgy, though; he’s taking a huge risk, needless to say, by giving a hard dose of fiscal reality to a crucial state he’s actually well positioned to win, especially now that Huck’s out. Ace is right that if Pawlenty goes on to lose the caucuses, he can now spin the defeat not as a case of him underperforming but of having been punished for being a truth-teller. But that’ll be a cold comfort when he then has to move on to New Hampshire to face Romney, who’ll have spent a ton of money there, and Huntsman, who’ll probably be camped out there for the better part of the next eight months.
There are several critical analytical mistakes in this piece. First of all, he describes Huntsman as a centre person. Er no – Huntsman is a Radical Republican who is in fact left of centre. What Allahpundint does in his analysis is to follow the LSM meme which favours the Democrats proclaiming the Democrat position as the centre… when this is so blatantly not true.
Second, the endorsement by establishment figures in this particular election cycle could backfire. The establishment endorsement will only work if the people doing the voting are used to following the establishment Cocktail Party line in an uncritical fashion. If the primary voters follow the establishment line then the Republicans will not recapture the White House. It will be up to the Republican base to show the Cocktail Party that their ideas are no longer satisfactory.
Third, Allahpundit concentrates on “It’s my turn, Romney”, Pawlenty and Huntsman at the peril of overlooking the candidates that are the most likely to have the ability to call Østupid out on so many other areas.
People need to be aware of the subtleties of this kind of analysis and to be more critical of HotAir and Allahpundit in particular. You need to become more aware of the eyeore effect as well as learning how to detect a Concern Troll. In the long run, this will help you to determine the right person to be POTUS.