Never count your chickens

The BBC is reporting that both Saif Gadhafi and Mohammed Gadhafi have escaped from the opposition forces. There has been a turnaround in the fighting, but it is not over by a long shot. Celebrations in Green Square have been premature. With Saif claiming that the opposition has been lured into a trap, it means that the forces that are loyal to the scum are still intent upon killing all of the people who are opposed to the Gadhafi regime.

The scum regime continues to use scud missiles against their own people. They have continued to use snipers on the rooftops to kill anyone who steps out of their houses. It also gives the scum the opportunity to do other horrendous things and then blame it on the opposition forces. I have already heard some things that I consider to be untrue, until positive proof has been provided of the alleged wrongdoing.

We are all guilty of being premature. The end game has begun, but it is well and truly not over… perhaps until the fat lady sings….. I am hoping that the opposition forces will be able to capture both Saif and Mohammed, and this time lock them up in prison, where they belong.

UPDATE: there is still no sign of Moammar Gadhafi within the capital of Tripoli. This is probably because of the underground bunker system. He can move underground from one place to another. Gadhafi built his bunkers under schools, hospitals and childrens’ playgrounds with the intent of ensuring that NATO would not try to hit those targets. This means that he could be anywhere in Libya. Some people think that he is hiding in Sirte. This is possible.  Also, there has been no mention of the whereabouts of Khamis and General Sanussi. It is still possible that Khamis was killed during an air raid on Zlitan, which the regime denied, but what about Sanussi who is wanted by the ICC in conjunction with Daffy Duck and Saif.

According to the reports that I have seen during the day Saadi was captured, Mohammed escaped, and obviously Saif al-Islam Gadhafi also escaped from captivity. Something else that was reported concerns the Rixos Hotel, which is where the Journalists have been sequestered on the orders of the regime. The minders and the translators have disappeared. Very interesting. The journalists actually fear that they will be used as hostages by the regime. Perhaps that was the intention but the opposition has moved very fast.

The pockets of resistance have continued, and the tanks that were hidden in Gadhafi’s compound have emerged. The regime has been firing off scud missiles at the people of Libya. From what I understand there are few loyalists in Tripoli, but there are loyalists in Sirte and Sabha. The opposition has repulsed one group that had come from Sirte.

Also, when the Khamis Brigade base was secured by the opposition, they got hold of more weapons. This means that many within Tripoli will now be better equipped to face the regime. The number of deaths and wounded has most likely been exaggerated by the regime, divide whatever you hear by a factor of 10 for the time being. The regime has gone into overdrive with the rhetoric.

The story of the weekends events has been interesting. A very big role was played by the imams in their mosques. It is not like most people would think. It is very like what I saw in Iran in 2009 with many of the imams actually supporting those who were protesting. This time, the imams who were secretly co-operating with the NTC had a plan, a signal for the population to get ready to rise up in Tripoli. The signal was the singing of the old national anthem. 

This is what makes the Libyan situation so very interesting, it is the fact that one has to go back to the coup that led to Gadhafi gaining power to understand the working of the minds of these people. The people who formed the NTC actually want to do away with the introduced socialism. This is not surprising. In Benghazi there was a lot of resentment, especially amongst those who had their businesses and their goods stolen from them. These are people who have lived in the West at some point in their lives and they understand democracy. They want to introduce democracy (probably the Westminster model) to Libya. Will it work? Who knows… I do not know if it will work. A large number of Libyans are professional men and women. Many are engineers, teachers, lawyers, doctors, dentists etc. and most have got their schooling in the UK or the USA. Not everyone is democracy minded, and this is why there will be dangerous times ahead.

However, at this point in time, with everything happening so fast, we have to look to the future for Libya, and hope that democracy will come to that country. It is possible, but it will only happen if NATO troops are kept out of the country. The problem in Iraq is the fact that Iran has been trying to get control of Iran through Moqtada al Sadr, and Al Qaeda has also been active. In Afghanistan there is a similar problem (Australia lost another soldier yesterday meaning 29 have been killed since the Afghan war began), but with Iran backing the Taliban. Another problem in that region comes from both China and Russia who have been secretly backing the Taliban and have been trying to forge a relationship with Pakistan.

If Libya is neutralized with Gadhafi out of the way, then that can only be a good thing. We cannot expect that Libya will forge any kind of alliance with Israel, and this is because of the manner in which Islam teaches bad things about Jews. However, we shall just have to wait and see whether the newcomers remain hostile or whether they are neutral.

5 responses to “Never count your chickens

  1. Carlyle, as much as I love American Thinker, on this subject I have found their writers to be wanting in their analysis.


  2. Well,

    I don’t know, just thinking. I agree Aussie that there is no (at this time) solidified evidence that without doubt clearly points for analysis to conclude any one body of government will step in and take charge of Lebanon once the United States, U.N, and NATO -opps- “Civilian Rebels”, overthrow Qaddaffi.

    Yes, I am aware to some extent of Pre-and-Post WWII efforts led by the Allies to remove Italy from its presence and threshold. In fact, once you mentioned it, I needed to go back and refresh my history. My opinion is still unmoved. But again, it’s simply just that, an opinion.

    I understand your hopes and views, however recent trends with the Muslim Brotherhood should not go unnoticed. A basic search does not reveal the entire depth of the strong arm influence of the MB and goals. As you are aware, the recent citizen uprising in Iran yielded absolutely zero response from the world leaders, against one madman Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, guilty of some of the most human atrocities in the Middle East, far more so than Qaddaffi, (not quite as near as Saddam Hussein of course). Where was NATO? the U.S.? the U.N.? Absolutely silent. Why? Well, of course there will be speculation, but what was the end result? The Muslim Brotherhood stepped in and was given more authoritarian influence in Iran policies, hence a quailing. Only to find out afterwords, that the up-rising was created and lead by the MB in the first place. Was this what the students and citizen up-risers wanted? Most likely not.

    Then we have the Muslim “citizen” uprising in Egypt, and once again, find out after-the-fact, the MB was behind it, and stepped in, and once again, given power in its various means.

    Not to outdo themselves, the same is Sudan, Yemen, Kuwait, Jordan, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, and many more, just over the last few decades, and most explosively (no pun intended), in the last 2 years. All starting and initiating the uprising, all for the cause of freeing oppressed people, only to take over themselves or at the least, have major influential powers in policies.

    Why? Well, certainly their Charter may give us a little hint. It is all about the Caliphate, bringing together all Muslims united under Shia and Sunni including other muslims. One head, One State, multiple muslim religions welcomed outside of the Shia and Sunni.

    In a quick wrap-up here, the is a heavy trend analysis that is simple to review, the MB moving from boarder to boarder, state to state, starting and encouraging citizen uprisings, then stepping in and taking control in some form or another, known afterwords each and every single time.

    Therefore, this is what I see, and I don’t see them (MB) all of a sudden leaving Lebanon alone, allowing them to be Stateless and leaderless and infighting. The MB is well organized and know exactly what they are doing to achieve their final goals. In fact, we will soon see their claimed interests, and most likely taking claims (once again) of starting it, and then stepping in (once again) to save the State.

    If I don’t stop now, I will continue to ramble my opinion.. 🙂

    I look at the trends for analysis, not the war itself, rather the deeper intent of the war to begin with, who benefits from it and why. In this case, it is the MB as soon will be discovered (again).

    just thoughts off the top of my head this morning.


  3. William – 12:50 AM
    “Why? Well, certainly their Charter may give us a little hint. It is all about the Caliphate, bringing together all Muslims united under Shia and Sunni including other muslims. One head, One State, multiple muslim religions welcomed outside of the Shia and Sunni.”
    Excellent point, William. That is the goal of the M.B., and I believe it is reasonable to assume that the person in the W.H. agrees with their goal, since he has done nothing but favorably court its representatives from day one.

    Fomenting instability in a country is one way to get a foothold, even if it means piggybacking a legitimate desire by the citizens for freedom. In fact, that is the way the forces of evil work, whether it be, e.g., communism or islamic conquest. “Divide and conquer” isn’t just a slogan. It is the method often used to gain control. History proves that.

    (I left a K.I.S.S. analysis at the other thread)


  4. Cabby,

    Speaking of “Piggybacking”, I have always held issues for any leader to accurately determine exactly what qualifies for direct interference pertaining to what they claim is an inhumane act, when to get involved, when not too and why not, as well as what constitutes Genocide, oppressions, ect..

    There is such a significant difference of world wide opinion, even within governments, that becomes quite confusing of any definition given in commonality.

    Lets look at a brief recent history. President Clinton called for and invaded Kosovo, declaring Mass Genocide against the Muslims. Turns out, that nearly 14,000 have indeed been murdered. The world praised the U.S./NATO/U.N for such.

    As it also turns out, (I’ll let everyone else do the guessing homework) Many other Countries – then and today – have committed far more so called “Genocide” than Kosovo, they were a peach in an entire tree. But, everyone agreed.

    I am not going to attempt to venture into Africa’s Genocide (mum as world leaders are on that one) and well over 14,000 trust me. Nevertheless, we have those in Iran, Sudan, and oh my gosh, so many more to mention, that far exceed this so called oppression of the people and Genocide. But, when it came to Iraq, well known and a proven fact, that Saddam committed mass Genocide of well over 800,000 and estimated at 1 million, what did the world say? “Its none of our Business”….

    Really? Ok, so there is where I have a personal problem. If 14,000 is our business, but 1 million is not, then why the huge significant difference of opinion? In other words, what is our business? How many does it take? What is the line of chalk in the road to know when to act and when not too? Is there a magical number?

    10-20k requires massive invasion,
    100-800K, none of our business..


    Or, is there a much more ominous portion of the world powers at work? Is this really about Human lives? Is it really about resources (not hardly), so what is it?

    When is it our business? The magical number and the justification?

    Just me being me and asking questions.