Syria – in the footsteps of the Libyan revolution

Please note I am using the word “revolution” in a very loose sense, and only to point to the fact that there are now more similarities between the situation in Syria, and that of Libya, than at this time last year.

The army defections have been occurring for several months, although there has been an acceleration in the past month, for higher up army officers. This has taken more than 12 months to achieve compared to Libya where defections occurred within a few short weeks of the beginning of the troubles in that country.

The next step seems to be the diplomatic defections, and again these have been a lot slower than those in Libya. Once again in the Libyan situation such defections were almost instantaneous to the outbreak of unrest. It probably shows that the Libyans had been more strong-minded and determined in their efforts to get rid of a hated dictator.

I cannot draw any conclusions from such a defection as I think that the rate of diplomatic defections will need to dramatically increase if there is going to be any sort of momentum.

As it stands the situation between Turkey and Syria remains deadlocked, and the same is probably true where Syria and Lebanon is concerned. Al-Bashad still has an ally in Lebanon in the form of Hezbollah.

One other point to make and that is Koffi Anan continues to be a real stuff up and a very poor negotiator. His latest hare-brained idea is that Iran should intervene. I guess Anan is not aware that Iran has already intervened in the form of their Revolutionary Guard who had been deployed to kill innocent people in Homs and elsewhere in Syria. In other words asking assistance from Iran is a waste of breath. It will not bring about a solution as required, but could have further devastating effects for the Syrian people who are not members of the Allawi tribe.

I maintain that this situation in Syria is more or less a tribal one. Bashir al-Assad is a member of the minority Allawites who are in fact aligned to Iran. It is a very dangerous situation at the present time.


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