Whilst the situation in Yemen has not yet been resolved (and Al Qaeda has taken over one town in the south), and the situation in Syria has been escalating, all eyes have remained on Libya. The so called Arab spring seems more like a springboard for Islamists to gain control of the Middle East. Whilst I still believe the National Transitional Council with regard to their motivations, I have always remained sceptical about Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, Yemen and a number of other M.E. countries where there have been uprisings. One could say that most of these people have been useful idiots. Libya remains a standout because of the nationalism that is involved (however, should the Salafists raise their ugly heads, then we will know the actual direction that things will take).
The example of the end of the Pavli (sp) regime in Iran remains an example of what is normally expected when a dictatorship style of regime is about to fall. The Shah of Iran will be remembered for his secret police and the murders, imprisonments etc that occurred at the end, rather than the blossoming of the people. The same is true of Saddam Hussein – if he did any good, then that is forgotten by the fact that he secretly killed thousands in his dungeons. Therefore when applying those standards to the situation that we are witnessing this year we can indeed show that in order for the regime to fall the following needs to happen:
1. Mass defections of the leadership
2. Mass defections of the military
When Pavli was sent into exile, the final step had been the defection of the military and his personal guard. We also saw this when Muburak was hounded from office – the military told him to go. In the coming weeks I think we will see it in Syria and Yemen. Right now we are witnessing the defections in Libya.
In the past few weeks there have been some more high level defections. One of them was the man in charge of the Libyan oil company. Today there is an announcement that more than 100 people have defected including some generals and other army officers. One of the generals in this last group estimates that the strength of the armed forces remaining is about 20%. These officers have denounced the violence against women and fellow citizens in the various cities within Libya. They have called upon the remaining officers and military to do the same and abandon Gadhafi.
This abandonment by top military personnel should be the writing on the wall, but Daffy Duck in his mental state is being extremely stubborn. The head of the African Union, Zuma from South Africa, was engaged in talks yesterday. Nothing has changed because the African Union roadmap to peace had already been rejected by both NATO and the rebels. Gadhafi has lost all legitimacy to remain as leader in Libya. His military and his ambassadors have abandoned him. He needs to exit whilst he has the opportunity.
Once Daffy Duck has gone, we will then know more about the Libyan direction. The people in Benghazi do seem to be more pro-western. I assume that is because many of them have been educated in the U.K. or the USA. However, there are pockets of people who are Islamists and have associations with Al Qaeda. Will they try to take over the government? They might be too weak to have much influence, and only time will tell whether or not the Islamists will gain a foothold. If the National Transitional Council is true to its word, then Libya will set the future standard for a Middle East style democracy.
However, there should be warning bells in regard to Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood have been very crafty in that they have pretended that they will not seek election, yet they have formed a political party. There is also evidence of a rise in the activity of the Salafists. Egypt is following very closely the path of Iran prior to the takeover by the Mullahs. Stupid people like the present WH regime cannot see that there is a very real danger and that should MB become successful that Egypt will align itself with Iran. This is very much on the cards.
Other very worrying signs come from Tunisia, where the revolution had come from the people, but the Islamists and Salafists have been gaining a foothold in the towns, imposing their will on the people, and seem determined to take power and then force women to wear the black sacks of nothingness. They are doing this by forcing out those imams who are what I would call moderate, and replacing them with hardliners.
Whilst I have not been dealing all that much with Yemen and Syria, there are some developments, especially in Yemen. Saleh is also on the ropes, and he refuses to leave power in Yemen. Over the weekend Al Qaeda successfully took a town in the south of Yemen. However, there are some who believe that this happened with the consent of Saleh so that he could try to prove that without him in power Al Qaeda would take over the country (more Arab spring). I do not know if that is true. Yemen is another country where the military have been abandoning the regime and are sticking up for the people.
In 2009 when there was an uprising in Iran because the election was stolen by Ahmahnutjob, the world turned its back on the people. There were protests, which from the point of view of those involved were peaceful, until the basijj showed up and started up the violence. Hundreds of Iranians were killed, and thousands were injured. It was not until Neda was gunned down that there was any real world focus on the events. Even then Angela Merkel had to prompt Østupid to say something and to denounce the regime violence agaisnst the people, and then he went back to doing nothing, turning his back on the Iranian people because he wanted to be friends with the regime. The human rights abuses in Iran are shocking. People were dragged from their homes, many were beaten in the prisons, forced to sign false statements, and many young women and young men were raped (some never recovered from their injuries, with at least one being dumped in a ditch at the side of the road). Then the hangings behind closed doors began, and even now we do not know how many have been killed by the Iranian regime since 2009. If the military had sided with the people perhaps we would have seen the end of the regime, but you have to keep in mind that the Grand Pooh-bah, expecting trouble, had imported members of Hezbollah to do his dirty work. Syria is using the same tactics, using the basijj to do the dirty work.