Australia is in the middle of an election campaign. It has meant the usual attack ads, oh how boring. We have seen Whingeing Wendy 2.0 aka Sour Susie make her appearance, and disappear again. The scare campaign attack ads are now taking over on the television. However, a decision to watch very little in the way of T.V. is always a good idea during an election campaign :). It is a decision that saves a lot of angst :).
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is an egotistical little man who thinks that the worst government ever should be given another three years to ruin the economy of Australia. We are already in debt to the tune of $300 billion. This sounds like peanuts to Americans but it is huge to Australians. We have suffered the wastage just like the USA has suffered because of Barry Soretoro.
Despite the fact that we are in campaign mode, Kevin has found time to get all excited about the use of chemical weapons in Australia. He wants to commit Australia to something… I just do not know what he wants to commit us to if he should win government (highly unlikely at this stage).
On the other hand, the leader of the Opposition, Tony Abbott, has remained the voice of reason on the subject of Syria. I do in fact believe that Tony is correct in what he is stating and I believe that this should be the attitude that a leader in Australia should take on this matter. At this point in time we still do not know who used the chemical weapons. Also, it is pointless to go on the attack and such an attack has the potential to create a major war in the Middle East. Time to go softly, softly.
Now, you might wonder why I said “the man most likely”. He did not become a priest even though he entered a Seminary. It simply was not the life for Tony Abbott :). Nope, that is not the reason. He has 4 daughters, so no, there is nothing most likely about that. He is a good family man, and one who believes in the truest form of social justice (not the leftoid kind of social justice that is simply lip service to those who are poor). Nope that is not it eiher. The real reason is that all of the polls and the betting are indicating that in a week’s time Australia will get a new government and the man most likely to become Prime Minister is Tony Abbott.
Just like in the USA there are people who think that the betting agencies somehow get it right. Well, I remain uncertain about whether or not betting agencies are a good indication of anything. Yet, Sportsbet, one of the Australian betting agencies has already declared that the Opposition will win the Federal Election and they have paid out on the bets already placed for the win. Interesting.
We also have a variety of polls, and some are better than others when it comes to methodology. Over the past few months I have been critical of some of the major polls when their results seemed like an outlier, and in fact I was correct because in one instance the pollster excluded data from certain States, hence making it look like there had been a swing towards the government, yet when results from those States were given, then a different picture emerged. There are many reasons to be critical of certain pollster, especially Essential Media, yet it has been interesting to note that even in their biased polls, the Opposition has remained firmly in front.
I have spent the best part of a week doodling in regard to the polling information, the election pendulum, etc. etc. and i have also come to some conclusions regarding the outcome of the election.
First of all, it is a given that there will be a swing away from the Rudd government. The size of the national swing is not at all clear. However, in the western suburbs of Sydney the swing could be as high as 10%. After looking at the most likely outcomes, and fiddling with the size of swings in each electorate or each State, I am willing to forecast that after September 7, the Coalition will hold around 100 seats, and the ALP will hold just over 50 seats. The Green member of the Parliament will not be returned and the ALP will have its only win.
Second, if I do the State by State forecast, then I see that the biggest upsets will be in NSW, followed by Queensland and Victoria. There is a chance that Kevin Rudd the dud will lose his seat of Griffith. It is highly likely that the swing is on there because people are really pissed off with him, especially his refusal to debate his opponent. In NSW there are some seats that have always been safe for the ALP and they are in danger of falling to the Opposition, with one in danger of falling to the Green Candidate (however the Liberal Party have advised that the Green candidate be placed last) which means the sitting ALP member should be safe in that seat. If the belwether seat of Eden-Monaro changes hands then the Opposition will win the election. I am expecting between 6-10 seats to fall in NSW alone. On top of that I am expecting the Victorian seat of Corangamite to change hands. Dobell should go to the Liberal candidate and the same with Robertson. The seats of Lindsay and Greenway are expected to fall as well. The ALP have tried hard to ridicule and trip up Jaymes Diaz but it is not working for them.
Third, we had a series of debates. I refused to watch them. The best outcome, and the one that caused a buzz was when Tony Abbott asked “Does this man ever shut up?”. The media tried to make that an Abbott gaffe but it resonated with the audience who all felt the same way!! The whole campaign has been a disaster for KRUDD. The latest in a long line of gaffes has been the Treasury officials making a statement that takes the gloss off claims that there is a $10 billion hole in the Opposition costings – Sweet. The ALP try that one on all the time, but it turns out that the ALP use cash based or government accounting assumption and the Opposition uses accrual accounting assumptions thus the difference in the results. I do think that is actually scary because it means when the Liberals do take control of the government there is going to be one very big headache as they learn the truth about the debt and all of that spending.